Swedish Housing Prices: Leading indicators and scenario analysis

Swedish Housing Prices: Leading indicators and scenario analysis

January 23, 2019

The historical relationship, as estimated by a variety of statistical models, between Swedish house prices and their driving forces suggests that prices will increase at an annual rate of two to three percent over the next one to two years. Large price falls would only occur if equity markets fell significantly, household income fell, interest … Read More

Imminent risk of recession in the euro area

Imminent risk of recession in the euro area

January 22, 2019

Growth in the euro area, Sweden’s most vital export market, slowed considerably over the course of 2018. When presenting its new macroeconomic projection in December, however, the European Central Bank, or ECB, predicted that growth would recover. We have analysed a number of different forecast models and scenarios and can state that the ECB’s assessment, … Read More

Macro Forecasting – New drivers of inflation

Macro Forecasting – New drivers of inflation

September 3, 2018

Over the last few decades, structural changes have affected the drivers of inflation, from domestic factors on which central banks normally focus, such as wages, productivity and inflation expectations, to more global factors. Analyses performed using a new forecasting tool support these results. The latest information available indicates that inflation in Sweden will fall to … Read More

Market forecasting – Case study: Commercial Vehicles in Europe

Market forecasting – Case study: Commercial Vehicles in Europe

August 9, 2018

We recently did a case study together with one of the major truck manufacturers on the number of registered commercial vehicles in Europe using the Indicio forecasting platform. The analyses were done in monthly, quarterly and yearly view, with focus on the latter. The aim was to find driving market factors, policy and seasonality effects, … Read More

Market forecasting – 3 ways to find the market dynamics

Market forecasting – 3 ways to find the market dynamics

April 16, 2018

I often stumble across professionals working closely with the market which explains the dynamics and drivers of the market with a story. A story with great compassion which captivates and convinces in almost a heroic way. I recently started to dig into what the story was based upon and realized that it might not have … Read More

Demand planning – handling contradictive opinions and interests

Demand planning – handling contradictive opinions and interests

February 27, 2018

There are inherent complications in synchronizing the views of sales and operations in demand planning. Demand planning aims to optimize the production and balance the trade-off between production costs and service levels. With the sales-department being likely to push for a higher sales forecast in order to achieve higher service-levels, it is important for the … Read More